Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Dec 2, 2017 - 3:08 PM

Valid until

Dec 3, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

Heavy snowfall in the North Shore mountains (60-90cm storm snow) will take time to settle and bond to a crust. Carefully assess the snowpack before venturing into more aggressive terrain.

Regular season
Saturday - December 2, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - December 3, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - December 4, 2017
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent snow and wind resulted in slab avalanche conditions in steep and/or exposed terrain. Be careful around broad open slopes and steep terrain, especially where you can feel the November 26th crust with your ski pole.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep convex slopes.

Avalanche Summary

Storm slabs were easily triggered by ski cutting on Thursday into Friday. See here for a good video of how easily the snow was moving on Thursday. We also had a fine MIN post describing storm slab activity on Mt Seymour

Expect human triggered and natural avalanches to occur in steep, wind-affected terrain at higher elevations while precipitation continues.

Snowpack Summary

Significant amounts of storm snow fell over the past two days, with 50-80 cm of new snow accumulating. That said, the snow appears to be bonding well to a crust (down 70-90cm at treeline elevations) and stabilizing rapidly.

During the storms, instabilities have generally been short-lived and limited to layers down 20-30cm in the storm snow, or specific lee (northerly) features which saw rapid loading due to south (east) winds.

Travel has improved below treeline, however, there are still open creeks, alder and other early season hazards. Expect snow depths of around 50 cm at 800 m and around 200 cm at 1200 m.

Weather Forecast

We'll see a clearing trend on Sunday and fine weather during the week.

Sunday: Clearing in the morning and then dry with some sunny breaks. Light northwesterly winds. Freezing levels 800m.

Monday: Sunny with cloudy periods. Freezing levels around 400 m. Light northwesterly winds.

Tuesday: Mainly sunny and becoming warm up high. Freezing levels rising to 2000 m. Light northerly winds.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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