Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Nov 26, 2017 - 3:42 PM

Valid until

Nov 27, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

Cooling temperatures are set to stabilize the snowpack.

Regular season
Sunday - November 26, 2017
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - November 27, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - November 28, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Thin new wind slabs may exist in lee terrain at the highest elevations in the region. Forecast wind and light snowfall may make a small contribution to their size and reactivity.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Thin new wind slabs may have formed at the end of the storm

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. However, the recent rain-on-snow event is suspected to have caused a natural, loose wet avalanche cycle. Looking forward, cooling temperatures are set to stabilize the existing snowpack while light new snow amounts may form touchy but thin new wind slabs in lee terrain at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

There are limited reports on snowpack structure at this time, except that recent heavy rainfall has saturated the snowpack at all elevations and washed away much of the snow at lower elevations. Travel below treeline is becoming more and more rugged, with many open creeks and early season hazards.

Snow depth varies from 40-130 cm for elevations between 900m and 1200m across the region.

Weather Forecast

Monday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light to moderate west wind. Freezing level to 900 metres with alpine temperatures of -3.

Tuesday: Heavy rain transitioning to snow at high elevations. Approximately 30mm accumulation. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Freezing level dropping from 1400 to 1200 over the day with alpine temperatures around 0.

Wednesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated wet flurries and a possible trace of new snow. Light west winds. Freezing level to 1300 metres with alpine temperatures around 0.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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