Avalanche Forecast

Sea To Sky

Date issued

Apr 15, 2018 - 3:56 PM

Valid until

Apr 16, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Wind slabs formed early-weekend have been reactive to human traffic. Snowfall on Monday could build new slabs, which may not bond well to variable underlying surfaces.

Regular season
Sunday - April 15, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - April 16, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - April 17, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong south winds redistributed recent snow.  Slabs up to 1 m thick are found in lee terrain features.  They have been reactive to human and natural triggers.  Watch your overhead exposure, as cornices could trigger slabs on slopes below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind-loaded snow.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm or the solar radiation is strong.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Professionals are still travelling cautiously due to a weak layer buried 60 to 140 cm.  Be particularly cautious around upper treeline and alpine terrain on shady aspects, where this layer is most likely to be a problem.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep terrain or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
  • Be aware of the potential for wide propagation due to the presence of buried weak layers.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, which could trigger persistent slabs.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, wind slabs and cornices were reactive to explosives, producing small avalanches generally in wind-loaded alpine and treeline terrain.

Snowpack Summary

30 to 40 cm of recent snow has been redistributed by strong south winds, forming reactive wind slabs up to 1 m deep in lee terrain features.  Sun, rain, and warm air temperatures on Sunday moistened the snow surface, which will freeze into a melt-freeze crust on all aspects up to at least 1800 m.  Snowfall on Monday will fall on these surfaces.  Ridgelines are heavily corniced and if they fail they could trigger slabs on slopes below.

A weak layer consisting of surface hoar, facets, and/or a melt-freeze crust from late March is now buried about 60 to 140 cm. Although this layer is spotty in its distribution and avalanches haven’t been reported on it since early April, professionals are treating it seriously and avoiding terrain because of it.  It is mostly likely to be problematic on west, north, and east aspects between 1900 m and 2250 m.

Below this, the snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, light to moderate southeast winds, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1400 m.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, light west winds, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 1300 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, light southwest winds, alpine temperature -7 C, freezing level 1300 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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