Avalanche Forecast

Sea To Sky

Date issued

Apr 13, 2018 - 3:48 PM

Valid until

Apr 14, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mbender

Snow and wind overnight Friday will elevate the avalanche danger.

Regular season
Friday - April 13, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - April 14, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - April 15, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Storm slabs are building at upper elevations. Slabs will be thicker in lee features, as the snow will fall with strong to extreme southwest winds. Rain at lower elevations will weaken surface snow and increase the likelihood of loose wet avalanches.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.
  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A weak layer buried 70 to 100 cm is still surprising people and producing large and destructive avalanches. Be particularly cautious around upper treeline and alpine terrain on shady aspects, where this layer is most likely to be a problem.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep terrain or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
  • Be aware of the potential for wide propagation due to the presence of buried weak layers.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, which could trigger persistent slabs.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday and Thursday there were numerous explosives triggered storm slab avalanches to size 1 and 1.5. Additionally there were explosives triggered cornice falls to size 2.

Snowpack Summary

20-25cm of new snow Friday has been redistributed by strong to extreme southwest winds. Reactive storm slabs and wind slabs built with continued snow and wind over the past 2 days. Ridgelines are heavily corniced and if they fail they would act as a trigger on the slope below.

A weak layer consisting of surface hoar, facets, and/or a melt-freeze crust from late March is now buried about 60 to 120 cm down. This layer is spotty in its distribution but has recently produced large avalanches. It is mostly likely to be problematic on west, north, and east aspects between 1900 m and 2250 m. Below this, the snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Snow overnight Friday, accumulation 10-15cm then cloudy with flurries Saturday / Light to moderate southwest wind / Alpine temperature -3 / Freezing level 1500m

SUNDAY: Cloudy with flurries, accumulation 5-10cm / Moderate north wind / Alpine temperature -2 / Freezing level 1300m

MONDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries / Light southwest wind / Alpine temperature -1 / Freezing level 1400m

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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