Avalanche Forecast

Sea To Sky

Date issued

Apr 9, 2018 - 4:34 PM

Valid until

Apr 10, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Expect changing weather on Tuesday: high freezing levels dropping over the day, intense rain switching to snow, and strong winds. Warming will weaken the snow and new snow will form fresh slabs. Be very cautious with these rapid changes.

Regular season
Tuesday - April 10, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - April 11, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - April 12, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Storm slabs and loose wet avalanches may be reactive in the morning with warm and rainy weather. New storm slabs will form once the rain switches to snow. Slabs will be thicker in lee features, as the snow will fall with strong southwest winds.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, it is raining, or the solar radiation is strong.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind-loaded snow.
  • Avoid overhead exposure, as avalanches may run full-path.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A weak layer buried 60 to 90 cm is still surprising people and producing large and destructive avalanches. Be particularly cautious around upper treeline and alpine terrain on shady aspects, where this layer is most likely to be a problem.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep terrain or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
  • Be aware of the potential for wide propagation due to the presence of buried weak layers.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, which could trigger persistent slabs.

Avalanche Problem 3: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Cornices are very large and fragile. The morning's warm temperatures and rain may quickly deteriorate their stability. Give them a large berth while on ridges and avoid travelling underneath them, as they may trigger avalanches on slopes below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid travelling on slopes below cornices.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on ridges.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, storm slab and loose wet avalanches were widespread across the region.  They were small to large (size 1 to 2), on all aspects, and at all elevations.  They were triggered naturally, by skiers, and by explosives.  Cornices were also reactive, which triggered storm slabs on the slopes below.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures have moistened the snow surface on all aspects and at all elevations.  The forecasted snow on Tuesday will fall on this.  On ridges, cornices are reported to be large and fragile. At lower elevations, recent precipitation fell as rain, so expect moist or wet snow conditions.

A weak layer consisting of surface hoar, facets, and/or a melt-freeze crust from late March is now buried about 60 to 120 cm. This layer is spotty in its distribution but has recently produced large avalanches. It is mostly likely to be problematic on west, north, and east aspects between 1900 m and 2250 m.

Below this, the snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: Cloudy with rain switching to snow, accumulation 20 cm, strong to extreme southwest winds, alpine temperature 0 C dropping to -5 C, freezing level 2600 m dropping to 1300 m over the day.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 15 cm, light to moderate south winds, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1300 m.

THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, light southwest winds, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 1300 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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