Avalanche Forecast

Sea To Sky

Date issued

Feb 10, 2018 - 4:37 PM

Valid until

Feb 11, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Reactive wind slabs can be found on leeward and cross-loaded slopes at upper elevations.  Also be mindful of what is above or below you. Cornices may become fragile especially with warming or sun-exposure.

Regular season
Sunday - February 11, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - February 12, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - February 13, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs remain reactive to human triggers, especially on leeward slopes and cross-loaded terrain features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Large looming cornices exist along ridgelines. They require respect and discipline. Give them an extra wide berth from above and below particularly during periods of warming or solar exposure.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Summary

Saturday a skier triggered a a size 1.5 wind slab release from a cross-loaded feature on a northwest aspect at 1900 m, near Whistler.

On Friday, evidence of a natural cycle which likely occurred near the end of the warming period earlier in the week was reported, with storm slab activity up to size 3 observed on north to east aspects in the Mt Currie area.

On Thursday, avalanche control with explosives triggered numerous slab avalanches up to size 2. Cornice releases triggered wind slabs from the slopes below up to size 1.5. With colder temperatures expected this weekend, natural avalanche activity will likely taper off, but human triggering will be possible especially on leeward and cross-loaded slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Snow surfaces vary from aspect to elevation showing crusts, wind pressed and scoured conditions. In the alpine 5-15 cm of recent snow, accompanied by strong winds from the southeast have formed reactive wind slabs up to 30 cm thick in leeward terrain, while wind-protected areas still hold unconsolidated, cold snow. At treeline and below treeline elevations a melt-freeze crust has formed up to 1900 m.

On average 180 cm of settled snow now sits on the mid-January crust which generally shows signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, it has the potential to "wake-up" with a large trigger such as a cornice fall. Below this, the snowpack is thought to be generally strong and well-settled.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Ridge wind light, northeast. Temperature -8. Freezing level valley bottom.

MONDAY: Sunny. Ridge wind light, northwest. Temperature --5. Freezing level 800 m. Alpine inversion.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation up to 5 cm. Ridge wind moderate, southwest. Temperature -2. Freezing level 800 m. Alpine Inversion.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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