Avalanche Forecast

Sea To Sky

Date issued

Feb 7, 2018 - 4:03 PM

Valid until

Feb 8, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

Forecast snow and strong winds is driving the avalanche danger. Be alert to changing conditions and increased hazard.

Regular season
Wednesday - February 7, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - February 8, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - February 9, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New storm slabs may be reactive to rider triggers, especially on leeward slopes and behind terrain features where wind loading builds thicker slabs.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Use conservative route selection, stick to moderate angled terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Large looming cornices exist along ridgelines. They require respect and discipline. Give them an extra wide berth from above and below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
  • Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, cornice triggers using explosives produced numerous results up to size 2. Cornices remain fragile, give them a wide berth from above and below. Some loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported from steeper terrain features below 1700 m. Avalanche activity will likely increase on Thursday with forecast snow and strong winds.

Snowpack Summary

New snow up to 10 cm and consistently strong winds from the south east have formed reactive wind slabs in exposed leeward terrain. Below this is a variety of old snow surfaces including wind pressed, scoured or fresh, low density snow in the alpine. Treeline and below treeline a melt-freeze crust exists with moist snow below 1500 m.

An average of 170 cm of settled snow now sits on the mid-January crust which generally shows signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, it has the potential to "wake-up" with a large trigger such as a cornice fall. Cornices are large and fragile and demand respect.

Below this, the snowpack is thought to be generally strong and well-settled.

Weather Forecast

Thursday: New snow up to 20 cm overnight Wednesday. Clearing by the afternoon. Ridgetop winds strong from the southwest. Alpine temperatures near -5 with freezing levels 1600 m.

Friday: Mix of sun and cloud with alpine temperatures near -10 and freezing levels at valley bottom. Ridgetop winds light from the north.

Saturday: Mostly clear with no forecast snow. Alpine temperatures near -10 and ridgetop winds light from the northeast.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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