Avalanche Forecast
Sea To Sky
New snow and extreme winds will keep the avalanche danger elevated at higher elevations on Friday. The avalanche danger is expected to rise throughout the day.
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
- Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.
Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Recent heavy snowfall and high winds have formed fragile new cornices. These monsters may surprise with nasty consequences. Use extra caution around ridge crests.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.
- Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
Avalanche Summary
Explosives control on Tuesday and Wednesday triggered lingering storm slabs at treeline and above - mostly in the size 1.5-2 range. The exceptions were a size 3 and a size 3.5 slab that were explosives-triggered on rocky, cross-loaded alpine slopes. The exact failure plane of these avalanches is unknown.
Looking forward, continued snow and wind on Friday morning is expected to promote a new round of wind slab activity in higher elevation lee terrain.
Snowpack Summary
As of Thursday morning 10-15 cm of new snow had fallen and was redistributed by strong southerly winds into fresh wind slabs in exposed lee terrain. At lower treeline and below, generally light amounts of snow now overlie a melt-freeze crust which formed during last Monday's warm storm.
The new snow adds to the 170cm of snow that fell during the last few weeks of January. These series of storms were accompanied by strong to extreme winds which resulted in extensive scouring and impressive cornice growth in upper elevation terrain. These accumulations sit on a crust from mid-January which generally shows signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, it has the potential to "wake-up" with a large trigger such as a cornice fall.
Below this, the snowpack is thought to be generally strong and well-settled.
Weather Forecast
Friday: 10-20cm of new snow / Strong to extreme westerly winds / Freezing level at 1400m
Saturday: Light flurries / Light and variable winds / Freezing level at 1200m
Sunday: 5-10cm of new snow / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at 2300m
Note: Confidence is low for forecast wind values and precipitation amounts for Saturday and Sunday.
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New snow and wind on Thursday night are expected to form new wind slabs in higher elevation lee terrain. This new snow overlies older storm slabs which are gaining strength but may remain sensitive to large triggers in steep, unsupported terrain.