Avalanche Forecast
Sea To Sky
Avalanche conditions are forecast to intensify throughout the day on Tuesday. Conservative terrain selection remains critical.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.
- The new snow will take time to settle and stabilize.
Avalanche Summary
An impressive natural storm slab avalanche cycle occurred in response to new snow and wind on Monday. In some of the big east-facing terrain to the west of the Upper Lillooet Valley, evidence of natural activity to size 4 was observed, while explosives control produced storm slabs in the size 1.5-3.5 range.
Looking forward, forecast snow and wind will promote ongoing surface storm slab avalanche activity, while surprisingly deep releases within (or at the base of all of the recent storm) snow may be possible in isolated terrain.
Snowpack Summary
The region has been pummeled by heavy snowfall and extreme southerly winds. By Monday morning the 48 hour snowfall totals were just over 100cm. Thanks to extreme southeast winds, I would anticipate extensive scouring and redistribution of the recent storm snow at all elevation bands with dense storm slabs lurking in lee and cross-loaded features. Impressive cornice growth is also expected to have occurred.
About 150cm below the surface you'll find a crust that was buried mid-January and is present at all elevations. This crust is thin on northerly aspects and up to 3 cm thick on solar aspects. Most reports suggest an improving bond at this interface, but the load of the new snow may tip the balance and reactivate this layer in isolated terrain. Below this, the snowpack is generally strong and well-settled.
Weather Forecast
Tuesday: 10-30cm of new snow / Strong to extreme southerly winds / Freezing level at 1000m
Wednesday: 25-45cm of new snow / Strong southerly winds / Freezing level at 1100m
Thursday: 10-25cm of new snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 800m
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An impressive storm has just occurred, and deep and dense storm slabs lurk in lee and cross-loaded terrain. New snow and wind on Tuesday will add to this ongoing storm slab problem. Watch for conditions to intensify throughout the day.