Avalanche Forecast

Sea To Sky

Date issued

Jan 12, 2018 - 3:33 PM

Valid until

Jan 13, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jlammers

Natural avalanche activity can be expected if the sun makes an appearance on Saturday.

Regular season
Friday - January 12, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - January 13, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - January 14, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and wind on Friday is expected to form new storm slabs and increase the avalanche danger. Watch for increased reactivity in exposed lee terrain. If the sun makes an appearance on Saturday, loose wet avalanches can also be expected.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • The new snow may require a few days to settle and stabilize.
  • Use extra caution on solar slopes or if the snow is moist or wet.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday a size 1 storm slab was accidentally skier-triggered in high, north-facing terrain at the south end of the Squamish-Cheakamus divide. No other avalanches were reported.

Looking forward, expect a new round of storm slab activity in response to new snow and strong winds on Friday night. If forecast warming and solar radiation arrives early, loose wet avalanches can also be expected.

Snowpack Summary

Strong southeast winds and snowfall on Friday are expected to form new storm slabs in exposed lee terrain. Below the new storm snow, you'll find about 25-50 cm of relatively low-density snow which overlies a thick crust that was buried on January 6. This crust exists up to about 2000m.

Beneath the January 6 crust, the lower snowpack is generally strong and well settled.

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Overcast with possible sunny breaks in the afternoon / Light and variable winds / Freezing level rising to 2300m

Sunday: Clear skies / Light and variable winds / Freezing level at 2900m

Monday: 10-15mm of precipitation / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 2300m

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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