Avalanche Forecast

Sea To Sky

Date issued

Dec 25, 2017 - 3:57 PM

Valid until

Dec 26, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Ho, ho, HO! Here's to hoping for some appreciable snowfall later in the week.  We won't see much change until then.

Regular season
Monday - December 25, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - December 26, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - December 27, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Variable winds have created both hard and soft wind slabs on most aspects in the alpine and exposed treeline areas. These slabs overlie the December 15th crust and may still be reactive to light loads such as a skier or rider.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Watch for stiff or hollow feeling snow, whumpfing, or shooting cracks.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no reports of avalanche activity since last week when there was a report of a small (size 1) skier accidental wind slab release on a north aspect in the alpine on Thursday. Last Wednesday, several small, skier-triggered avalanches were reported as well as explosives triggered slab avalanches up to Size 3 (stepping down to the late November crust) on wind-loaded slopes in the alpine and at treeline.

Snowpack Summary

A light dusting of new snow now covers a highly variable snowpack surface with hard and soft wind slabs as well as wind-scoured areas of exposed crust in the alpine, and soft unconsolidated snow in sheltered areas at treeline and below treeline.

Approximately 5 cm of new snow overlies 20-40cm of old storm snow above the December 15th melt-freeze crust that formed on all aspects and elevations. Recent snowpack tests have ranged from no results, to moderate to hard resistant results on the December 15th layer.

Beneath the December 15th layer lies at least 10 cm of sugary snow crystals (facets) and the late November crust, which is now buried 70-100 cm with a thin layer of facets above. Beneath this crust the lower snowpack is well settled.

Some recent conditions reports can be found on the Mountain Information Network (MIN) here, and here.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light from the west. Temperature -8. Freezing level surface.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5 cm. Ridge wind moderate from the southwest. Temperature -8. Freezing level surface.

THURSDAY: Snow. Accumulation 10 - 20 cm. Ridge wind moderate from the southwest. Temperature -3. Freezing level 700 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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