Avalanche Forecast

Sea To Sky

Date issued

Dec 19, 2017 - 4:17 PM

Valid until

Dec 20, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

In the wake of Tuesday's storm, be vigilant for wind loading - even at lower elevations. Extra caution on south through east aspects!

Regular season
Tuesday - December 19, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - December 20, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - December 21, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Winds during Tuesday's storm were from the north west - which is not the usual pattern we see. Watch out for storm slabs on south through east aspects.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep convex slopes.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, reactive soft slabs were reported on southerly terrain features at treeline. See here for details in the Mountain Conditions Report. Small steep features below tree line were also running naturally to Size 1 on a layer just above the Dec 15th melt-freeze crust.

Ski cutting produced several storm slabs up to Size 2 at higher elevations.

Also on Monday, we had reports of reactive wind slabs on steep north-facing slopes. See here for the MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of low-density snow fell on Tuesday, accompanied by moderate to strong north west winds. Soft slabs 20-40cm thick were reactive to human traffic.

There is now 30-50cm of snow sitting on a melt-freeze crust that formed on all aspects and elevations in early December. On high north aspects this crust is thin with dry, sugary snow crystals (facets) below.

The lower snowpack is well settled and consists of several crusts that formed in the early season.

Weather Forecast

After Tuesday's storm it will clear up and we'll have dry weather with cool temperatures for the foreseeable future.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny with occasional cloudy periods. Ridge wind moderate northerly. Freezing level at the surface, alpine high temperatures of -4.

THURSDAY: Some clouds and isolated flurries. Ridge wind moderate from the north west. Temperature near -3. Freezing level 400 m.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Ridge wind moderate from the north east. Temperature near -10. Freezing level at the surface.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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