Avalanche Forecast

Purcells

Date issued

Mar 18, 2018 - 3:07 PM

Valid until

Mar 19, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Be aware of snow conditions that change with elevation and from one aspect to another. Thin storm slab may exist in the alpine while sunny and lower elevation slopes may become wet or moist with sun or daytime warming.

Regular season
Sunday - March 18, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - March 19, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - March 20, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Watch for areas of moist or wet snow especially on steep, sunny slopes and near rocky outcrops or gullies.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday there were reports of small (size 1) skier and sled triggered slab avalanches (15 - 25 cm deep) on north and northeast aspects in the alpine. Explosive control work also produced several cornice failures up to size 2.5 that entrained loose snow on the slopes below but no deeper slab releases.

Last week, explosive control work on Friday produced size 1.5 slab avalanches averaging 20-60 cm deep on steep northerly features at treeline.

And earlier in the week numerous wet loose avalanches were observed in the region to size 2.5 on sunny aspects. As well as both skier and sledder triggered wind slabs up to size 1.5 on south east to west aspects.

Snowpack Summary

A light dusting of snow (5-10 cm) covers a crust on all but high elevation northerly aspects which still hold loose, dry snow above a generally well-settled snow pack. Below 1700 m, a surface crust exists on all aspects and will likely breakdown with daytime warming, becoming moist in the afternoon.

Deeper persistent weak layers from mid-late February (down 40 -100 cm deep) as well as January and December layers are generally considered dormant, but could wake up with a surface avalanche stepping down, cornice fall, or a human trigger in a shallow or variable-depth snowpack area. These layers consist of sun crust, surface hoar and/or facets. Facets also linger at the base of the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 2-10 cm. Ridge wind light, northwest. Alpine Temperature near -6. Freezing level 500 m.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation trace. Ridge wind light, west. Alpine Temperature near -5. Freezing level 1700 m.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, light flurries. Accumulation trace. Ridge wind light, southwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1700 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation trace. Ridge wind light, south. Alpine temperature near -4. Freezing level 1800 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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