Avalanche Forecast
Purcells
Direct sun is likely to weaken surface snow layers and give cornices a bit of an extra nudge too. Avalanche danger may spike higher than forecast on sun-exposed slopes.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.
- Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
- Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Persistent slabs are most likely to be triggered with a large load like cornice fall; or by a person in a thin or variable-depth snowpack spot.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
- Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could potentially trigger the persistent slab.
- Choose regroup spots that are out of avalanche terrain.
Avalanche Summary
A natural cycle of size 1.5-2.5 loose wet avalanches was reported on south-facing slopes on Wednesday. A couple of size 2-2.5 persistent slabs were also observed on south aspects. These most likely failed on a crust buried in February. Some large cornice chunks fell down too.
Avalanche activity is expected to increase as we move into a period of intense sun and prolonged warming. Predictable loose wet avalanches from steep, sunny terrain should be easy to manage. The trickier beast will be when warmth penetrates into the snowpack and starts tickling deeper persistent weak layers. I'd avoid exposure to large sun-exposed features and keep well away from corniced slopes over the next few days.
Snowpack Summary
Around 10-20 cm new snow has formed storm slabs, which overlie over sun crusts on solar aspects. A couple of layers buried in mid-late February (down around 40-100 cm) are variably reactive, but both have the potential to create surprisingly large avalanches if triggered. Initially, these interfaces were most reactive on solar aspects, where they present as buried sun crusts. However, persistent slabs have been triggered on shady aspects too, where surface hoar and/or facets exist.
Deeper persistent weak layers from January and December are generally considered dormant, but could wake up with forecast warming, a surface avalanche stepping down, cornice fall, or a human trigger in a shallow or variable-depth snowpack area. These layers consist of sun crust, surface hoar and/or facets. Facets linger at the base of the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
THURSDAY NIGHT: 10-20 cm overnight with moderate south-westerly winds.
FRIDAY: Cloud clearing. Treeline temperature near -8. Light winds.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Treeline temperature near -3. Light winds.
SUNDAY: Mainly sunny. Treeline temperature near -1. Light winds.
Avalanche Forecasts in your Inbox
Avalanche Canada has switched to an RSS feed for its daily forecasts. This is a much more flexible method that allows automatic delivery to your email inbox, or to an RSS reader of your choice.
What are RSS feeds?
RSS (Really Simple Syndication) is a popular standardized file format allowing up-to-date delivery of web-based content. RSS feeds enable you to receive content updates from websites, delivered to your email through an RSS aggregator (such as blogtrottr.com) or viewed through applications called RSS readers (such as feedly.com).
Set up an RSS feed for your email:
Select a RSS aggregator
- Purcells URL:
http://www.avalanche.ca/api/forecasts/purcells.rss - Copy the url and paste it into the appropriate field of your RSS aggregator.
- Fill in your email address.
- Voila! Watch the Avalanche Canada forecast roll into your inbox.
Forecast Disclaimer
Avalanche Canada's Public Avalanche Bulletin, and other information and services provided by Avalanche Canada, are intended for personal and recreational purposes only.
**THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED "AS IS" AND IN NO EVENT SHALL THE PROVIDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, DAMAGES RESULTING FROM DISCOMFORT, INJURY, OR DEATH, CLAIMS BY THIRD PARTIES OR FOR OTHER SIMILAR COSTS, OR ANY SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, ARISING OUT OF THE USE OF THE INFORMATION.**
The user acknowledges that it is impossible to accurately predict natural events such as avalanches in every instance, and uses the data in this bulletin with this always foremost in mind. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed or warranted in any way and the Providers disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use, or inability to use the data.
New snow and wind have formed variable storm slabs and loose snow conditions, which could be triggered by solar radiation, cornice fall or the weight of a person.