Avalanche Forecast

Purcells

Date issued

Jan 12, 2018 - 5:02 PM

Valid until

Jan 13, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the Purcells - especially in areas that received more snow from recent storms. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

A Special Public Avalanche Warning is in effect in this region.

Regular season
Friday - January 12, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Saturday - January 13, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Sunday - January 14, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

40 to 90 cm of snow now sits above a touchy weak layer. Remote and natural triggering has become a regular occurrence. Widespread avalanche activity has occurred on this layer in nearby regions and similar activity is now being reported from Purcells

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Numerous large avalanches have run on this layer in well supported, treed terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

20-60 cm of recent snow is sitting on a touchy weak layer and it has yet to form a solid bond. The danger is greatest in areas that received the most snow from recent storms. Storm slabs may be especially touchy in wind affected areas.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • The new snow overlies a persistent weak layer and will take longer than usual to stabilize.
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Thursday include observations of explosives control in the central north of the region producing mainly storm slabs from size 1.5-2 on all aspects in the alpine. One remote triggered Size 1 persistent slab was also reported.

Wednedsday's reports included observations of several persistent slab releases from Size 1-2.5 that were primarily triggered remotely (from a distance) and failed at the December 15 interface. Several other storm slabs and wind slabs were triggered, naturally, remotely and by skier traffic. Reports have been focused in areas that received more snow from recent storms and showed a noticeable increase from previous days.

Some of the themes that are emerging from recent activity both in the Purcells as well as in neighbouring regions include accidental and remote triggering, 'step down' release types, releases on surprisingly low angle, supported terrain, as well as wide fracture propagations.

Looking forward, expect a continuation of heightened human triggering potential that is likely to increase toward the weekend with forecast warming.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storms brought a variable 10-60 cm of new snow to the region. The new snow sits on surface hoar on sheltered slopes as well as sun crust on steep solar aspects. Moderate to strong southwest winds accompanied the snowfall at higher elevations, creating wind slabs in lee features.

As the new snow continues to consolidate, it is forming a dangerous slab above several persistent weak layers that exist in the snowpack. The first of these is the surface hoar found at the old snow surface. Recent snowpack tests and avalanche activity show high reactivity at this layer. Below it, the December 15 surface hoar is now buried a widely variable 40-100 cm deep. This layer has been the failure plane in many recent destructive slab avalanches in neighbouring regions and its reactivity has been most apparent at treeline and below. In the Purcells, both of these layers are of greatest concern in areas that received greater snowfall from recent storms.

Deeper in the snowpack, down about 90 to 150 cm, a rain crust from November is showing reduced reactivity in snowpack tests. This layer is considered dormant but it may be triggerable in thin spots around variable snowpack areas in the alpine.

Weather Forecast

Friday night: Scattered flurries bringing 2-5 cm of new snow. Light southwest winds.

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with continuing isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light west winds. Alpine high temperatures to -4, rising overnight.

Sunday: Mainly cloudy with thicker valley cloud due to a temperature inversion. Light variable winds. Freezing level to 2000 metres with alpine high temperatures to +1. Cooler at lower elevations.

Monday: A mix of sun and cloud with thicker valley cloud due to lingering temperature inversion. Light southeast winds. Freezing level to 2200 metres with alpine high temperatures to +3. Cooler at lower elevations.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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