Avalanche Forecast

Purcells

Date issued

Nov 26, 2017 - 3:50 PM

Valid until

Nov 27, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

Consider avalanche danger to be HIGH in areas that receive rain on top of 30 cm or more of dry snow. Avoid exposure to avalanche terrain during periods of rapid loading by rain, snow, or wind.

Regular season
Sunday - November 26, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - November 27, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - November 28, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A natural avalanche cycle is expected on Sunday into early Monday in areas where rain falls on dry snow.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, cracking, or recent natural avalanches.
  • Avoid exposure avalanche terrain during periods of rapid loading by rain, snow, or wind.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Rapid loading by rain or snow will increase the likelihood of avalanches occurring on this layer.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to avalanche terrain during periods of rapid loading by rain, snow, or wind.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, no new avalanches were reported in this region. Natural avalanche activity is expected on Sunday into early Monday in areas where rain falls on dry snow.

We currently have very limited observations in this region. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

A new crust formed on Thursday as temperatures cooled and the rain-soaked snow surface froze. Since then 15-30cm of snow has fallen at treeline and above. The new snow has created fresh storm slabs sitting on a crust.

The depth of the snowpack varies greatly with elevation. Recent reports suggest the average depth is 150+cm in the alpine, 100-150cm at treeline, and decreasing rapidly below treeline where the primary hazards are rocks, stumps, and open creeks.

A major feature in the snowpack is a crust which was formed around Halloween, and may be found approximately 100cm down at treeline elevations. We currently have very limited snowpack observations within this region and it is critical to supplement this information with your own observations.

Weather Forecast

We'll see lingering flurries on Monday as freezing levels come back to more seasonal values. Unsettled weather with scattered flurries for the remainder of the forecast period.

MONDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Moderate to strong westerly ridgetop winds. Freezing level around 1000 m

TUESDAY: 5-10 cm of snow. Moderate to strong westerly ridgetop winds. Freezing level around 1300 m

WEDNESDAY: Scattered flurries. Strong westerly ridgetop winds. Freezing level rising to around 1200 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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