Avalanche Forecast

Purcells

Date issued

Nov 24, 2017 - 3:45 PM

Valid until

Nov 25, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jsmith

New snow sitting on a hard crust may have created reactive storm slabs at treeline and above. Due to limited data it is CRITICAL to supplement this information with your own observations. Please post your observations to the MIN.

Regular season
Friday - November 24, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - November 25, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - November 26, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

15-25 cm of new snow has formed storm slabs sitting on a hard crust. These slabs will be particularly reactive in wind affected terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, or recent avalanches.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Start cautiously on small slopes before gradually working up to larger objectives.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Dry

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow sitting on a hard crust will very likely create loose dry avalanches in steep terrain where the new snow has not yet settled into a cohesive slab.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, no new avalanches were reported in this region. However, we currently have very limited observations in this region. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

A new crust was formed on Thursday as temperatures cooled and the rain soaked snow surface froze and then was covered by 15-25cm of snow at treeline and above. The new snow has created fresh storm slabs sitting on a crust. The depth of the snowpack varies greatly with elevation. Recent reports suggest the average depth is 150+cm in the alpine, 100-150cm at treeline, and decreasing rapidly below treeline where the primary hazards are rocks, stumps, and open creeks. The major feature in the snowpack is a crust which was formed around Halloween can be found approximately 100cm down at treeline elevations. However, the new surface crust will temporarily reduce the likelihood of triggering on this layer. We currently have very limited snowpack observations within this region and it is critical to supplement this information with your own observations.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy / Light southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 1500 m

SUNDAY: 5-10 cm new snow in the afternoon with an additional 5-10 cm overnight / Moderate to strong southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 2400 m

MONDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries / Light to moderate westerly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 1500 m

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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