Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Inland

Date issued

Mar 31, 2018 - 4:29 PM

Valid until

Apr 1, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

New and old slabs aren't bonding well to underlying layers. Be cautious on southerly aspects when the sun is out -- it could weaken the snow and trigger avalanches.

Regular season
Saturday - March 31, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - April 1, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - April 2, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent storm slabs are found in the south of the region and older slabs exist in the north.  Very large avalanches have occurred, as the slabs are not bonding well to underlying layers of surface hoar, crusts, or sugary facets in thin snowpack areas.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
  • Observe for signs of instability, such as cracking, whumpfing, and avalanche activity.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, there was evidence of a widespread natural cycle from the recent storm snow in the south of the region, with slab and loose avalanches generally failing in steep terrain at all elevations. These avalanches were small to large (size 1 to 3).

Snowpack Summary

Thursdays storm brought up to 40 cm of snow to the southern parts of the region, such as around Smithers. This overlies last weekends storm snow that has settled into a reactive slab about 50 cm thick. This slab is not bonding well to two layers of surface hoar, which exist on shaded aspects at high elevations as well as a melt-freeze crust on all aspects at treeline and below treeline elevations.

Deeper in the snowpack, layers of crusts, facets, and isolated surface hoar buried about 100 cm exist from mid-February. Near the bottom of the snowpack, weak and sugary facets are found in shallow, rocky snowpack areas. Storm slabs have stepped down to these facets recently, producing very large avalanches.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Early morning snowfall then mostly sunny, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, light northeasterly winds, alpine temperature -10 C, freezing level 600 m.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy, light southerly winds, alpine temperature -11, freezing level 300 m.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with early-morning snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, light southwesterly winds, alpine temperature -10 C, freezing level 500 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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