Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Inland

Date issued

Mar 14, 2018 - 4:04 PM

Valid until

Mar 15, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Snow is forecasted in the east of the region; treat the hazard as higher if you find substantial snowfall.  Expect wind slabs in immediate lee and cross-loaded features. The best riding will be in areas sheltered from recent wind and warming effects.

Regular season
Wednesday - March 14, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - March 15, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - March 16, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Forecasted snow with strong winds in parts of the region could form new slabs.  Wind slabs from the past few days also linger in lee and cross-loaded features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.

Avalanche Summary

Widespread loose wet avalanche activity was observed on southern aspects at all elevations on Tuesday.  Some of these were stepping to basal facets in the north of the region where the snowpack is thin.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm temperatures and rain have produced a melt-freeze crust on most snow surfaces, except for possibly high elevation north.  New snow will fall onto this melt-freeze crust.  Strong easterly to southerly winds have redistributed any previously available soft snow and produced wind slabs in lee and cross-loaded features.  This overlies a sun crust on solar aspects and a surface hoar and sugary facet layer on sheltered, shady aspects. 

A surface hoar and crust layer from January is buried around 80 to 140 cm. This layer still has the potential to be triggered from a thin snowpack spot, or with a large trigger like a cornice fall.

Sugary facets exist at the bottom of the snowpack in steep, rocky, and shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY:  Cloudy with variable snowfall amounts, accumulation from 2 cm in the west to 20 cm in the central and eastern parts of the region possible, moderate northwesterly winds, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 900 m.

FRIDAY:  Mix of sun and cloud, light northeasterly winds, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level 1400 m.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy, light northeasterly winds, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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