Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Inland

Date issued

Mar 11, 2018 - 4:03 PM

Valid until

Mar 12, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Increasing freezing levels and sunny skies are heating the snowpack, with the most warming and highest danger around midday. The best riding will be in areas sheltered from the wind effect and sun, without any overhead exposure.

Regular season
Sunday - March 11, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - March 12, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - March 13, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Rising freezing levels and sunny skies will allow for intense warming of the snowpack on solar aspects. Pay close attention to the effects of the sun on avalanche terrain and avoid overhead exposure.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Start early to stay off south facing slopes during the heat of the day.
  • Watch for signs that the snow is heating up such as pin-wheeling and point-releases below cliffs.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where small avalanches can have high consequence.

Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong southerly winds have redistributed the recent storm snow and formed touchy wind slabs. Use caution when entering into lee features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.

Avalanche Summary

Newly formed wind slabs were reactive to skiers and natural activity on Saturday, up to size 1 in direct lee features at treeline.  Loose snow was also noted in steep terrain features.

Snowpack Summary

Sustained southerly winds have produced wind slabs in lee features.  This overlies a sun crust on solar aspects and a surface hoar and sugary facet layer on sheltered, shady aspects.  Expect to find a melt-freeze crust or moist snow below around 1400 m.

A surface hoar and crust layer from January is buried around 80 to 140 cm. This layer still has the potential to be triggered from a thin snowpack spot, or with a large trigger like a cornice fall.

It is unlikely, but may be possible to trigger very large avalanches on facets at the bottom of the snowpack in steep, rocky, and shallow snowpack areas or with large triggers.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Mostly sunny, light to moderate southerly winds, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level rising to 2000 m.

TUESDAY: Sunny, light to moderate southeasterly winds, alpine temperature 2 C, freezing level 2200 m.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 cm, light easterly winds, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level 1600 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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