Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Inland

Date issued

Feb 18, 2018 - 4:24 PM

Valid until

Feb 19, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Strong winds have created very touchy wind slabs. Be cautious in terrain features where snow has accumulated, as the slabs will likely be easy to trigger.

Regular season
Sunday - February 18, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - February 19, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - February 20, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong to extreme winds have produced stiff and touchy wind slabs in lee and cross-loaded features. These slabs will be reactive to both natural and human triggers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain; avoid lee and cross-loaded features
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind-loaded snow.
  • If triggered, wind slabs may step down to deeper layers, resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Several weak layers are lurking in our snowpack. They will be more easily triggered where the snowpack is shallow.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be aware of the potential for wide propagation.
  • Minimize overhead exposure, as avalanches could run for long distances.

Avalanche Summary

Many small to large (size 1 to 2) wind slabs were reported on Saturday in steep alpine and cross loaded terrain.  They were reported to have released naturally and by skiers due to rapid wind loading from strong northeasterly winds.

Avalanche activity may slow down with a period of cold, clear weather expected to persist well into the week, unless the sun is powerful enough to warm the snow surface. Watch for steep sunny slopes due to the sun’s influence, lee features for reactive wind slabs, and be extra cautious near thin spots and shallow snow pack areas where triggering a deeper weak layer is more likely.

Snowpack Summary

Northerly to easterly winds have created stiff wind slabs on leeward slopes and scoured wind-exposed slopes at all elevations.

Deeper in the snowpack, a crust and/or weak surface hoar layer buried in mid-January now lies about 60 to 100 cm below the surface. The crust exists well into the alpine and the surface hoar can be found in sheltered areas in lower alpine and tree line elevations. Snowpack tests have produced hard, sudden results on weak, sugary snow crystals associated with this crust in the Smithers area, indicating that this is still a layer of concern.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Partly cloudy with increasing cloudiness, moderate northwesterly winds, alpine temperature -12 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny, light to moderate northerly winds, alpine temperature near -10 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny, moderate to strong northerly winds, alpine temperature near -9 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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