Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Inland

Date issued

Jan 17, 2018 - 4:49 PM

Valid until

Jan 18, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

New snow and wind are increasing avalanche danger in the region. Take a cautious approach while the new snow settles and bonds to the surface.

Regular season
Wednesday - January 17, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - January 18, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - January 19, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow will continue building fresh slabs over Wednesday night and it will also be burying old wind slabs. Be extra cautious around steep rolls and in the lee of ridges and exposed terrain features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid steep pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Be conscious of wind loading patterns as you gain elevation.
  • Watch for signs of wind slab formation, like shooting cracks.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

There are signs that suggest a reactive slab has finally developed above weak layers in the top 50 cm of the snowpack. It's still early to be certain, but persistent slab problems should be on your radar. Thin areas and convexities are most suspect.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Choose well supported terrain without convexities.
  • Carefully evaluate and use extra caution around thin snowpack areas.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Monday include two small skier triggered avalanches (both size 1). One was a wind slab on a northwest-facing slope under a wind lip and the other was a remotely triggered avalanche on a 50 cm deep surface hoar layer at 1000 m. These small avalanches may be indicators that the upper snowpack has settled into a more reactive slab.

Snowpack Summary

New snow is falling on a temperature crust left over from warm temperatures on the weekend. This crust likely exists well into the alpine. The warm temperatures also settled the upper snowpack, potentially forming a slab above buried weak layers in the top 50 cm of the snowpack. The potential weak layers include a few crusts and surface hoar layers that formed in early January and December. Recent reports suggest the snow is well bonded to most of these layers, but the recent settlement of the upper snowpack may have changed that.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: Cloudy with flurries bringing 3-7 cm of new snow. Moderate southeast winds.

Thursday: Cloudy with continuing isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light to moderate southeast winds. Alpine high temperatures to -5.

Friday: Mainly cloudy. Light southeast winds. Alpine high temperatures to -5.

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures to -6.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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