Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Inland

Date issued

Dec 3, 2017 - 3:29 PM

Valid until

Dec 4, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

Warmer temperatures expected in the alpine by Tuesday with a strong temperature inversion by Wednesday. Avalanche hazard will likely increase during this time of change.

Regular season
Monday - December 4, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - December 5, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - December 6, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Deep Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The late October crust lies near the base of the snowpack with a thin layer of weak, sugary snow above it. Recently, this layer has been reactive to rider triggers and remote triggering has occurred producing a large avalanche.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • Be cautious in shallow snowpack areas where triggering a deeper layer may be possible.

Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent snow and wind have formed touchy wind slabs. Expect these slabs to be more pronounced at higher elevations and on leeward aspects. Signs of wind affected snow include whumpfing and cracking.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Caution around convexities, slopes or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche activity has been reported. Stiff wind slabs may exist at treeline and in the alpine on leeward slopes and cross-loaded features. If triggered, these could step down and trigger deeper weak layers, initiating large avalanches. The last significant avalanche observation was submitted on November 28th from Skilokis Cr. A size 2.5 persistent slab was triggered from 150 m distance away. This problem will likely linger. Check out the Mountain Information Network for more details. Give info, get info.

Snowpack Summary

Alpine snow surfaces are likely wind affected with average snowpack depths 80 cm -140 cm at treeline elevations, and up to 160 cm in the alpine. Approximately 30-50 cm of recent snow now overlies two crusts that were buried near the end of November. Recent snowpack tests have shown sudden planar results at this crust interface. These crusts are widespread and extend well into the alpine. Below these crusts exists a well settled mid pack overlying the late October crust near the base of the snowpack. This late October "crust/facet combo" is widespread and has been reactive to rider triggers.

Weather Forecast

Monday: Mix of sun and cloud with new snow 5-10 cm. Alpine temperatures near -8 and Freezing levels rising to 700 m. Ridgetop winds strong from the west.

Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures near -2 and freezing levels 1000 m. Ridgetop winds moderate from the west.

Wednesday: Sunny with valley cloud and alpine temperatures reaching a high of plus 7. Freezing levels 400 m with a very strong alpine temperature inversion. Ridgetop winds light from the southwest.

Expect strong inversions in the alpine up to 3000 m. For detailed information visit the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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