Avalanche Forecast
Northwest Inland
This forecast is based on limited information. There is much uncertainty, particularly how weak layers may respond to human triggers. Treat this as a first estimation of avalanche danger and adjust your terrain choices based on observed conditions.
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing or cracking.
- Avoid steep convexities and areas with variable snow distribution.
Avalanche Problem 2: Deep Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
The late October crust lies near the base of the snowpack and a layer of weak, sugary snow sits above it. This layer may react to a heavy trigger like a storm slab release. The first evidence of avalanche activity on this layer was recently reported.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- If triggered, storm slabs may step down to deeper layers and result in large avalanches.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.
Avalanche Summary
Small slab avalanches and loose dry avalanches were reported from the west of the region over the weekend. Previously, (last Wednesday), several estimated Size 2.5-3 avalanches wereobserved on the Kathlyn face of Hudson Bay Mountain. Please post your observations to the Mountain Information Network. (MIN)
Snowpack Summary
Snowpack depths over the south of the region are above average for late November, with total depths of approximately 150 cm present at treeline elevations and above. The past week of stormy weather delivered about 60 cm of new snow to form the upper snowpack in the region. A thin rain crust may exist at mid-depth within this new snow. Below the new snow, about 20-30 cm of settled storm snow lies above the widespread late October crust. This October crust is present near the base of the snowpack at all elevations and features a layer of weak, sugary grains above it. This "crust/facet combo" layer remains an ongoing concern for step-down potential from large triggers such as a storm slab release. This layer is less of a concern below treeline where it is broken up by vegetation near the ground.
Weather Forecast
Tuesday: Around 5 cm new snow expected with freezing levels around 900 m. Winds strong southerly in the morning, becoming westerly later on.
Wednesday: Flurries or light snow. Freezing levels around 900 m. Winds strong southwesterly.
Thursday: Flurries or light snow. Freezing levelst around 500 m. Winds strong westerly.
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New snow and wind inputs continue to promote storm slab formation. Expect slab formation to be more pronounced at higher elevations that see more wind effect.