Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Apr 18, 2018 - 4:25 PM

Valid until

Apr 19, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jsmith

Forecast new snow and strong winds are expected to create touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers; especially in wind affected terrain.

Regular season
Wednesday - April 18, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - April 19, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - April 20, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow may bond poorly to an underlying crust. Watch for fresh storm slabs in leeward areas near ridge crests and convex features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use small slopes with low or no consequence to test the bond of the new snow.
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumphing, cracking, or recent natural avalanches.
  • Use caution when transitioning into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow below treeline may quickly become moist and increase the likelihood of loose wet avalanches.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for signs that the snow is heating up such as pin-wheeling or the surface snow becoming moist.
  • Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in this region on Tuesday. However, I would expect the incoming storm on Thursday to form fresh storm slabs reactive to human triggers; especially in wind affected terrain at treeline and above.

Snowpack Summary

The incoming snow and strong winds on Thursday will create touchy storm slabs at treeline and above.

In the south of the region, two layers of surface hoar are buried early-March and mid-March are approximately 70-100 cm deep and most prominent on north to east aspects. Further north, these layers are around 40 cm deep.

Below these March layers the mid-pack is generally well-settled and strong. However in the far north of the region there are weak sugary facets near the bottom of the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Snow; accumulation 10-15 cm. Strong southwest wind. Alpine temperature -1. Freezing level 1000 m.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Snow; accumulation 10-15 cm. Strong southwest wind. Freezing level 800 m.

FRIDAY: Snow; accumulation 5-15 cm. Moderate to strong south wind. Alpine temperature -1. Freezing level 1000 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries. Light west wind. Alpine temperature -1. Freezing level 1000 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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