Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Feb 24, 2018 - 4:54 PM

Valid until

Feb 25, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

pgoddard

Ongoing snow and wind are expected to cause a rise in avalanche activity.

Regular season
Saturday - February 24, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - February 25, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - February 26, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and wind have built fresh slabs, which may fail naturally or with the weight of a person. A storm slab could step down to a deeper weak layer, creating a surprisingly large avalanche.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
  • Be aware of what is above you at all times.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Dry

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Dry new snow is likely to sluff easily in steep terrain, especially where it overlies a hard crust.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.
  • If triggered, loose dry avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

The beginnings of a natural avalanche cycle were reported on Friday, with loose avalanches in steep terrain and wind slabs to size 2 failing naturally.

Ongoing snow and wind are expected to cause a rise in avalanche activity throughout the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Snow and wind over the weekend are building storm slabs and wind slabs in open terrain at alpine and treeline elevations. Storm snow is sluffing readily in steep terrain. New snow has buried old hard wind slabs, scoured surfaces and sastrugi in many exposed areas. In wind-sheltered terrain, sun crusts or dry facets sit below the recent storm snow.

In the upper pack is an interface of sun crusts, facets and spotty surface hoar (which is most prevalent in sheltered treed locations). Deeper in the snowpack, around 50-150 cm down, you'll find a crust/surface hoar layer, which still has the chance to surprise you and could be triggered from a thin snowpack spot, or with a large trigger like cornice fall.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: 15-20 cm snow. Strong west to south-westerly winds.

SUNDAY: 5-10 cm snow. Freezing level near 400 m. Moderate to strong westerly winds.

MONDAY: 5-10 cm snow during the day, with a further 15-20 cm overnight. Freezing level near 400 m. Strong south-westerly winds.

TUESDAY: Around 10 cm snow. Freezing level near 400 m. Strong westerly winds.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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