Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Feb 22, 2018 - 4:00 PM

Valid until

Feb 23, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

pgoddard

Weather forecast models disagree about snow amounts. If it is snowing heavily and/or blowing in your area, expect high avalanche danger.

Regular season
Thursday - February 22, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - February 23, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - February 24, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and wind are building fresh slabs, which may fail naturally or with the weight of a person. A storm slab could step down to a deeper weak layer, creating a surprisingly large avalanche.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
  • Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow or wind.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Dry

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Dry new snow is likely to sluff easily in steep terrain, especially where it overlies a hard crust.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.
  • If triggered, loose dry avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

Rapid wind loading caused a natural avalanche cycle on Wednesday. On steep solar aspects, size 1-2 loose wet avalanches were also observed.

New snow and wind are expected to cause a rise in avalanche activity on Friday and the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Incoming snow is expected to be light and dry, but will come with moderate to strong south-westerly winds. Loose snow sluffing and fresh wind slabs are likely problems on Friday. New snow will overlie old soft and hard wind slabs.

In the upper pack is an interface of sun crusts, facets and spotty surface hoar (which is most prevalent in sheltered treed locations). Deeper in the snowpack, around 50-150 cm down, you'll find a crust/surface hoar layer, which still has the chance to surprise you and could be triggered from a thin snowpack spot, or with a large trigger like cornice fall.

Weather Forecast

THUSRDAY NIGHT/ FRIDAY: 20-40 cm light dry snow. Freezing level near 600 m. Moderate south-westerly winds. Weather models suggest heaviest snow in the Terrace area, with less as you travel east and north.

SATURDAY: 5-10 cm snow. Freezing level near 400 m. Moderate south-westerly winds.

SUNDAY: 10-20 cm snow. Freezing level near 400 m. Light to moderate south-westerly winds.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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