Avalanche Forecast
Northwest Coastal
Forecast precipitation amounts are uncertain. If actual snowfall amounts Monday night through Tuesday are equal to or exceed the upper end of estimates, the avalanche danger will be HIGH.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Buried weak layers in the snowpack have produced recent large avalanches in steep, unsupported terrain features.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.
- Avoid shallow, or thick to thin snowpack areas where triggering a deeper layer is more likely.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday avalanche activity was reported as natural and skier triggered windslab activity on east and north aspects at 1300m. Additionally loose dry avalanches to size 1.5 were reported from steep rocky terrain. On Saturday a size 2 remotely (from a distance) triggered persistent slab avalanche was reported to have run on a northeast aspect in the alpine on buried layer of surface hoar.
Snowpack Summary
60-80cm of snow covers a widespread crust as well as surface hoar in isolated areas at mid elevations that were buried mid-January. Surface hoar is more likely to exist in sheltered areas at treeline and below with crust elsewhere. This weak layer has produced easy, sudden results in snowpack tests late last week in the Shames area and also recent avalanche activity at upper treeline and alpine elevations.
Professionals have also been monitoring a few mid-pack layers within the snowpack including a crust/ surface hoar layer that was buried early-January and now lies 70-120 cm below the surface, and a similar layer buried mid-December that now lies 100-140 cm below the surface. Both of these layers have been reactive in recent snowpack tests producing moderate to hard, sudden results and have also produced recent large, natural avalanches in northern parts of the region near Bear Pass.
The lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of areas around Stewart and further north where a basal crust and facets exist.
Weather Forecast
TUESDAY: Periods of snow, accumulation 5-10cm Monday night and 10-20cm Tuesday / Moderate to strong southwest wind / Alpine temperature -3
WEDNESDAY: Flurries, accumulations 5-10cm / Light to moderate southwest wind / Alpine temperature -5
THURSDAY: Flurries, accumulations 5-10cm / Light to moderate northwest wind / Alpine temperature -4
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New snow combined with moderate to strong winds have created slabs on top of potential weak sliding layers