Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Jan 19, 2018 - 5:11 PM

Valid until

Jan 20, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

For the safest, best skiing and riding, seek out low density new snow that hasn't formed a slab. Increase your caution at sheltered mid elevations where buried surface hoar may lurk.

Regular season
Friday - January 19, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - January 20, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - January 21, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent snowfall has formed storm slabs over widespread temperature crusts and more isolated pockets of surface hoar. Slabs are likely to be touchiest where surface hoar is buried and in the immediate lee of ridgecrests and exposed terrain features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid steep pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Sheltered openings at mid elevations are likely areas for surface hoar to be preserved.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Thursday included observations of several storm slabs releasing naturally, remotely (from a distance), and with skier traffic. Avalanche sizes ranged from Size 1-2. The remote release was noted to have slid on lower angle terrain over a surface hoar on crust 'combo' left behind by the recent inversion. Ski cutting in the Shames area also produced loose wet releases to Size 1 in steep terrain.

Looking forward, the storm slabs that formed over Thursday may remain reactive to human triggering on Friday. Sheltered openings at mid elevations are an emerging concern with reports indicating they may harbour a touchy layer of surface hoar beneath the new snow.

Snowpack Summary

Snowfall over the mid-week brought about 30 cm of new snow to the region. Northern parts of the region saw about half this amount. The new snow has buried a mix of old wind slabs and temperature crusts left over from the weekend. More isolated surface hoar has been observed under the new snow at mid elevations that experienced cloud cover during recent inversion conditions. Storm slabs have been particularly reactive where this surface hoar exists.

Professionals have been monitoring a few layers in the upper snowpack, including crusts and surface hoar layers buried 40-80 cm below the surface. Although these layers have been reactive in recent snowpack tests, they have not produced avalanches lately. The lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of areas around Stewart and further north where a basal crust and facets exist.

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing 2-5 cm of new snow, continuing overnight. Light to moderate southeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around -5.

Sunday: Mainly cloudy with continuing isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light to moderate east winds. Alpine high temperatures around -7.

Monday: Cloudy with flurries bringing approximately 5 cm of new snow. Moderate south winds. Alpine high temperatures to about -7.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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