Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Jan 17, 2018 - 4:50 PM

Valid until

Jan 18, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

Avalanche danger is on the rise as new snow accumulates. Take a cautious approach to terrain selection during the storm.

Regular season
Wednesday - January 17, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - January 18, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - January 19, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Forecast snowfall amounts have been downgraded, but fresh storm slabs will still be building over Wednesday night and Thursday. Give the new snow time to form a solid bond to the surface before heading into steeper terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
  • Use extra caution in lee areas above treeline. Slabs will be touchier if wind loading has occurred.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid steep pockets of wind loaded snow.

Avalanche Summary

No recent slab avalanches have been reported. Looking forward, slab avalanche potential will be increasing as new snow accumulates.

Snowpack Summary

New storm slabs are developing on the surface as new snow continues to accumulate. The new snow is falling on a mix of old wind slabs and temperature crusts left over from the weekend. Professionals have been monitoring a few layers in the upper snowpack, including crusts and surface hoar layers buried 40-80 cm below the surface. Although these layers have been reactive in recent snowpack tests, they have not produced avalanches lately. The lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of areas around Stewart and further north where a basal crust and facets exist.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: Flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Light southeast winds.

Thursday: Cloudy with continuing scattered flurries bringing 1-5 cm of new snow. Light southeast winds. Freezing level to around 600 metres with alpine high temperatures to about -5.

Friday: Cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light southeast winds. Freezing level to 500 metres with alpine high temperatures of -5.

Saturday: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing 2-5 cm of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds. Freezing level to 500 metres with alpine high temperatures around -6.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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