Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Jan 11, 2018 - 3:49 PM

Valid until

Jan 12, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Watch for touchy wind slabs at all elevations created from strong outflow winds.

Regular season
Thursday - January 11, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - January 12, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - January 13, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong outflow winds have created stiff wind slabs.  Wind slabs formed from the last storm may also linger in lee features.  If triggered, these slabs may step down to buried weak layers and form large avalanches.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
  • Travel on ridgetops to avoid wind slabs on slopes below.

Avalanche Summary

A small naturally triggered wind slab was observed on a southerly aspect on Thursday.  More avalanches are likely with continuing strong outflow winds.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is variable across the region. Wind slabs and storm slabs are found on some slopes in the alpine and at treeline.  Strong outflow winds have formed wind slabs on southerly and southwesterly lee features at all elevations.

Up to 45 cm recent snow overlies several layers of interest in the upper snowpack. These include crusts, surface hoar and facets. A hard crust with associated facets from mid-December sits deeper in the snowpack, about 60 cm down. Any of these layers could create a persistent slab problem if new snow, wind-loading or warming change the properties of the slab above.

The lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of areas around Stewart and further north where a basal crust and facets exist.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Increasing cloudiness over the day with light snowfall starting in the afternoon, accumulation 10-20 cm overnight, strong outflow winds, alpine temperature near -10 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, light to moderate southerly winds, alpine temperature rising to 0 C but cold in the valleys, freezing level near 1800 m with inversion conditions.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with light precipitation, accumulation 5-10 mm, moderate southerly winds, alpine temperature near 4 C but possible cold air in the valleys, freezing level near 2000 m with inversion conditions.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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