Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Jan 7, 2018 - 4:23 PM

Valid until

Jan 8, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

pgoddard

Snow, wind and warming are creating a good recipe for avalanches in the south-west of the region. Expect better conditions further north and east.

Regular season
Sunday - January 7, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - January 8, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - January 9, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Snow, wind and warming are creating a good recipe for touchy storm slabs. Snow amounts are expected to vary widely. Storm slabs could fail on persistent weak layers in some locations, creating a surprisingly large avalanche.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • The more snow, wind or warming, the more cautiously to tread.

Avalanche Summary

Few avalanches have been reported over the past few days, but avalanche activity is expected to increase as storm snow comes in with warming and strong winds.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is variable across the region. Wind slabs can be found on a variety of slopes. New snow is expected to create touchy storm slabs in the south and west, but amounts should peter out as you travel north and east.

A surface hoar/facet interface that was buried on New Years Eve is down about 30-40 cm. Incoming storm snow might bring the load above this layer to its tipping point. A hard crust from mid-December sits deeper in the snowpack.

Beneath the mid-December crust the snowpack is reported to be generally strong with the possible exception of areas around Stewart and northern parts of the region where the late-October crust can be found near the base of the snowpack. Weak sugary faceted snow may exist around this deeply buried crust and could be triggered from shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Strong south-west winds. 10-20 cm snow (locally more in the south-west). Alpine temperature near -1.

TUESDAY: Light winds. 5 cm snow. Alpine temperature near -2.

WEDNESDAY: Light winds. 5-10 cm snow. Alpine temperature near -7.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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