Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Jan 6, 2018 - 5:31 PM

Valid until

Jan 7, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

Uncertainty exists with forecast amounts of snow: Adjust your terrain use to match the storm snow totals in your area.

Regular season
Saturday - January 6, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - January 7, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - January 8, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Storm slabs will be building with successive weather systems - dial back your terrain choices as storm snow totals increase.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Storm snow will form touchy slabs.
  • Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls

Avalanche Summary

In the south of the region, recent avalanche activity has been reported as thin storm slab avalanches to size 1 along with isolated wind slab avalanches on east aspects in the alpine and at tree line.

Snowpack Summary

In the south of the region, recent warming, some rain/freezing rain and daily snowfall of 5 -10 cm has begun to build a thin storm slab. Above tree line the new snow has been redistributed by primarily south - west winds. There are some lingering wind slabs, found on a variety of old surfaces including a thick melt-freeze crust that formed in mid-December.

In the north of the region there has been 20-40cm of storm snow since New Year's eve, with moderate to strong southerly winds. Warming temperatures and forecast snow are expected to form touchy storm slabs at all elevations. Danger ratings in the north of the region are likely one step higher than listed on the main page.

Beneath the mid-December crust the snowpack is reported to be generally strong with the possible exception of areas around Stewart and northern parts of the region where the late-October, basal crust can be found near the base of the snowpack. Weak sugary faceted snow may exist around this deeply buried crust and could be triggered from shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Forecast

We'll see a return to a more seasonal active weather pattern, with modest amounts of snow by Monday afternoon. 

SUNDAY: Snow. 10-15 cm accumulation / Moderate south wind / Alpine temperature -3 / Freezing level 600m

MONDAY: Snow. 10-15 cm accumulation / Moderate south west wind / Alpine temperature -2

TUESDAY: Isolated flurries / Moderate north west wind / Alpine temperature -4

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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