Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Jan 4, 2018 - 5:08 PM

Valid until

Jan 5, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mbender

Warm temperatures reach up into the alpine with a layer of cold air sandwiched in the middle. As a result, forecast precipitation may come in as a combination of rain, snow (high alpine) and/or freezing rain.

Regular season
Thursday - January 4, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - January 5, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - January 6, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow combined with southerly winds and warm temperatures will have created wind slabs in the lee of terrain features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Overnight precipitation Thursday into Friday may come in as rain and/or freezing rain. Where the precipitation falls as rain, the surface snow will weaken and sluff in steep terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche activity has been reported as thin storm slab avalanches to size 1 along with isolated wind slab avalanches on east aspects in the alpine and at tree line.

Snowpack Summary

10-20cm of new snow has fallen throughout the region so far in the new year. Recent above freezing temperatures up to1400m has settled the recent new snow rapidly and begun to build a thin storm slab. Above tree line the new snow has been redistributed by primarily southerly winds. There are some lingering wind slabs, found on a variety of old surfaces including a thick melt-freeze crust that formed in mid-December. Cornices have also been noted at ridge tops, with strong north east winds last week. In non-wind affected terrain, 20-40 cm of faceted (sugary) snow overlies the mid-December crust layer.

Beneath the mid-December crust the snowpack is reported to be generally strong with the possible exception of areas around Stewart and northern parts of the region where the late-October, basal crust can be found near the base of the snowpack. Weak sugary faceted snow may exist around this deeply buried crust and could be triggered from shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries Friday, overnight Thursday into Friday rain, freezing rain or snow (5-10cm above 1900m) / Moderate to strong southwest wind / Alpine temperature -2

SATURDAY: Flurries / moderate south wind / Alpine temperature -5

SUNDAY: Cloudy with flurries / Light northeast wind / Alpine temperature -3

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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