Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Jan 3, 2018 - 5:07 PM

Valid until

Jan 4, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mbender

Freezing levels on Thursday are uncertain. As a result, forecast precipitation may come in as a combination of rain (low elevation), snow (high alpine) and/or freezing rain (between 1000-1300m).

Regular season
Wednesday - January 3, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - January 4, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - January 5, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs may be lingering around ridge crests, exposed gullies and cross-loaded slopes. These wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the buried mid-December crust layer and reactive to human triggers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for whumpfing, stiff or hollow sounding snow, and shooting cracks.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Possible rain on snow will weaken the surface snow and cause it sluff in steep terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche activity has been reported as small loose dry avalanches in steep terrain on all aspects along with isolated wind slab avalanches on east aspects in the alpine and at tree line.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10cm of new snow has fallen in some parts of the region so far in the new year.

Cold temperatures and strong winds (from a wide range of directions) have affected the surface snow over the past week, scouring some slopes down to an old crust and forming hard deposits in many other areas. There are some lingering wind slabs, found on a variety of old surfaces including a thick melt-freeze crust that formed in mid-December. Cornices have also been noted at ridge tops, lee (downwind) to strong north east winds last week.

In non-wind affected terrain, 20-40 cm of faceted (sugary) snow overlies the mid-December crust layer. This snow has been sluffing in steep terrain.

Beneath the mid-December crust the snowpack is reported to be generally strong with the possible exception of areas around Stewart and northern parts of the region where the late-October, basal crust can be found near the base of the snowpack. Weak sugary faceted snow may exist around this deeply buried crust and could be triggered from shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Cloudy with isolated freezing rain or flurries / Light to moderate south wind / Alpine temperature -1

FRIDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5-10cm / Moderate to strong south wind / Alpine temperature 0

SATURDAY: Flurries, accumulation 10-15cm / Moderate to strong south wind / Alpine temperature -4

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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