Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Dec 21, 2017 - 3:20 PM

Valid until

Dec 22, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jfloyer

Watch for wind slabs in unusual places, including low elevation terrain.

Regular season
Thursday - December 21, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - December 22, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - December 23, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

At upper elevations, northwest has been the primary wind direction. At lower elevations, easterly outflow winds are expected. Watch for wind slabs in unusual places.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation, aspect and exposure to wind.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Deep Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

This problem appears to be ongoing, particularly in areas around Stewart and to the north. Likely trigger points are in steep, rocky alpine terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be especially cautious in areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
  • Storm slabs in motion could step down and trigger deep persistent slab avalanches.
  • Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, carefully select genuinely safe spots to re-group.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive control work on Tuesday and Wednesday managed to produce some large avalanches that failed on the crust buried at the end of October on north through east aspect alpine slopes in the Stewart area and north of Stewart. A natural storm avalanche cycle was observed last weekend up to size 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

The region picked up 20 to 60cm of storm snow last weekend accompanied by winds out of the southwest, west, northwest, and most recently the east. Since then, little additional snow has fallen, but cooler temperatures have kept snow dry and susceptible to being blown around by the wind. Wind slabs may rest on a melt freeze crust (reported to be 3 to 15cm thick), and there are reports there also may be surface hoar resting above this crust in sheltered locations. Below this crust the mid-pack is reported to be generally strong. You can expect to find a second prominent crust, which was buried at the end of October, 100 to 200cm below the surface. This lower layer may have associated facets, particularly in more shallow locations.

Weather Forecast

Kasiks (1435m):HN24 9cm; TMin -5; TMax 0; winds 30-50 NW

Shames (740m):6cm/6mm; TMin -5; TMax -3

Bear River Ridge (1995m):

Windy Upper (1490m):winds 30-60 W then NW

Endgoal (370m):HN24 4cm

Snowbank Mid (1065m):HN24 3cm

Revision (1500m):20-35 W then NW

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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