Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Nov 27, 2017 - 4:57 PM

Valid until

Nov 28, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Snowfall warnings and strong winds mean elevated hazard during and after the storm. Conservative terrain choices and good route finding skills are imperative until the new snow has had a chance settle.

Regular season
Monday - November 27, 2017
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - November 28, 2017
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - November 29, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and wind will build touchy storm slabs at all elevations.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche Problem 2: Deep Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

If triggered deep weak layers near the base of the snowpack have the potential to produce large avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported, although observations from the Terrace area report shooting cracks within the recent storm snow, see the Mountain Information Network (MIN) post from Nov 25. Looking forward, high winds and snowfall rates are forecasted to rapidly load the snowpack and establish very dangerous avalanche conditions for the next few days. Any travel in avalanche terrain will require very conservative route-finding and travel practices. Please post your observations to the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

Approximately 30-60 cm of recent new snow forms the upper snowpack. This storm snow lies on a supportive crust that formed as a result of last week's warm, rainy weather. Below the crust are two weak layers that were noted to have formed in the early season (November 11 and October 31). Recent snowpack tests report easy to moderate, sudden, compression test results within the storm snow as well as moderate to hard, sudden results on both of the deep weak layers. Beneath the October 31 layer which is 20-30 cm above the ground, are several more thin crusts and large sugary snow crystals that are reported to be showing signs of improved bonding. Snowpack depths average 100-160 cm between 800 m and 1100m elevation in the south of the region.

In the north near Ningunsaw, reports describe a a much shallower snowpack. Here, a possible 20-30 cm of recent storm snow may now overlie a thin lower snowpack composed mainly of weak, sugary snow. Snow depths in this part of the region range from 50-100 cm between 600 and 1100 m elevation.

Weather Forecast

More snow is on the way, amounts from 15-25 cm are expected overnight on Monday.

Tuesday: Snow, accumulation 10-15 cm, Strong west wind. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 900 m.

Wednesday: Snow, accumulation 15-25 cm. Strong southwest wind. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 800 m.

Thursday: Flurries, accumulation 5-10 cm. Moderate southwest wind. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 700m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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