Avalanche Forecast
North Columbia
New snow and strong winds Friday night will form fresh storm slabs. These will likely be most reactive in wind-loaded areas and where a crust has been buried. Also watch for sluffing in steep terrain.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Sluffs may be easy to trigger in steep terrain that is sheltered from the wind
- Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
- Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Wind and storm snow may form deep slabs.
Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Warming temperatures and a bit of sun may destabilize the new snow and initiate loose wet avalanche activity, especially on steep south facing features. The likelihood of cornice failures also increases with sun and warming.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use extra caution on solar slopes or if the snow is moist or wet.
- Use caution above cliffs or terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.
- Cornices become weak with daytime heating. Avoid traveling on slopes below them.
Avalanche Summary
Thursday there were reports from Glacier National Park of a loose wet size 2 on a south aspect at 2100 m, and a size 4 wind slab that occurred overnight and is thought to have been cornice triggered on a north aspect at 2800 m.
Wednesday there was a report of a natural cornice failure that resulted in a size 2.5 wind slab release (50 cm deep and 200 m wide) on a northeast aspect at 2600 m, north of Glacier National Park.
On Tuesday in the neighboring Glacier National Park, all aspects were involved as natural loose wet avalanches ran size 2.5 to 3 between 1950 and 2700 m.
Loose wet avalanches to size 2 were reported from all aspects between 1000 and 2300 m Monday. In the neighboring Glacier National Park, loose wet avalanches to size 3 were reported from solar (south and west) aspects to size 3 between 2000 and 2300 m. A size 1.5 storm slab was ski cut from a northwest facing feature at 2400 m.
Snowpack Summary
A thin surface crust is now present on all aspects to at least 2300 m. This crust likely goes even higher on south facing aspects, while 20-30 cm of cold snow can still be found on high elevation northerly facing features.
There are now a few different crusts in the upper 50 cm of the snowpack, with only the upper, most-recently buried crust posing a concern with new snow in wind-loaded areas.
There is some lingering concern around the mid-March Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) in the alpine where it is found 70 to 110 cm below the surface. This buried crust/surface hoar interface was widely reactive last week, but has not produced any avalanche activity in the last few days. It is likely trending towards dormancy, but we need to keep it in the back of our minds as it is capable of producing large avalanches should it be triggered (think step-down from a surface avalanche or a cornice collapse).
Deeper persistent weak layers from December and January are dormant at this time.
Weather Forecast
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 10-25 cm. Ridge wind strong to extreme, southwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1400 m.
SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind strong easing to moderate, southwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1500 m.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind light, east. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1500 m.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 4-6 cm. Ridge wind light, east. Alpine temperature near -7. Freezing level 1000 m.
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New snow and wind will likely form touchy slabs that are poorly bonded to the crusts below. Avoid wind-loaded and cross-loaded slopes at treeline and above where these slabs may be especially deep and reactive.