Avalanche Forecast

North Columbia

Date issued

Mar 29, 2018 - 4:17 PM

Valid until

Mar 30, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

New snow and wind Thursday night and Friday will add to recent storm slabs that sit on a touchy crust/facet/surface hoar layer. Choose conservative terrain and be especially wary of wind-loaded areas and solar aspects.

Regular season
Thursday - March 29, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - March 30, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - March 31, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Storm slabs are expected to remain touchy, especially in wind-loaded areas above treeline. South aspects have been especially reactive due the presence of a buried crust beneath the recent storm snow.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be careful with wind loaded and cross-loaded slopes, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle to size 3 was reported on Tuesday and Wednesday on all aspects from 1900-2800 m. South and west aspects however were the most reactive with numerous size 3 storm slabs running on the recently buried, late-March crust.

Several skier and remotely (from a distance) triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 2 with crown depths from 50-80 cm were also report on predominantly southeast, south, southwest and west aspects in the alpine. These are also suspected to have failed on the late-March layer.

Skier's on Grizzly Mountain in Roger's Pass reported triggering a size 2 on Wednesday. See MIN report.

On Monday, backcountry skiers triggered a size 2 wind slab near the Asulkan cabin on a northeast aspect near 2050m. The slab's thickness varied from 40-60cm. See the MIN report for more details.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow amounts following Tuesday's storm typically range from 40 to 50 cm and up to 70 cm in some areas.

The recent storm snow sits a variety of old surfaces which form the late-March interface that consists of; crust on solar aspects and all aspects below 1900m, and surface hoar on high north and east aspects.

A deeper crust/surface interface buried mid-March is now down about 60 to 80 cm, and is similar to the late-March interface.

Deeper persistent weak layers from January and December are still being reported by professional observers but are generally considered dormant. 

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Flurries. Accumulation 6-12 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, southwest. Alpine temperature near -6. Freezing level 500 m.

FRIDAY: Flurries. Accumulation 4-12 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, west. Alpine temperature near -6. Freezing level 1000 m.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Ridge wind light, west. Alpine temperature near -6. Freezing level 800 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 2-5 cm. Ridge wind light to moderate, southwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1000 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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