Avalanche Forecast

North Columbia

Date issued

Mar 13, 2018 - 3:22 PM

Valid until

Mar 14, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

Isolated wind slabs at higher elevations are the main concern right now. Remain vigilant around cornices, and minimize overhead exposure.

Regular season
Wednesday - March 14, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - March 15, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - March 16, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs formed during last week's storm and may remain reactive in isolated locations - their distribution is variable. Extra caution is needed on solar aspects where sunshine could act as a natural trigger and buried sun crust as a sliding layer.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for wind loaded pockets near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle to size 3.5 occurred over the past four days. These avalanches were primarily wet loose avalanches on sunny aspects; however, some did step down to the mid-February layer (with 50-70 cm crowns) on southerly aspects.

Snowpack Summary

The main story over the past several days has been the sun's effect on south and west facing slopes. Daytime heating has resulted in moist or wet snow on sunny aspects, freezing to form a crust overnight.

On north and east facing slopes, cold dry snow can still be found and it sits on a well-settled snowpack.

Deeper persistent weak layers from January and December are generally considered dormant, but could wake up with a surface avalanche stepping down, cornice fall, or a human trigger in a shallow or variable-depth snowpack area. These layers consist of sun crust, surface hoar and/or facets.

Weather Forecast

We're looking at small amounts of new snow and slightly warmer than normal temperatures throughout the forecast period. Scattered convective activity on Thursday and Friday could result in locally higher snowfall totals.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with wet flurries in the afternoon (5 cm, with 10 cm possible in the Monashees). Light to moderate south west winds. Freezing level falling to 1700 metres late in the day, with alpine high temperatures of +2.

THURSDAY: Scattered flurries (2-5cm possible). Light northerly winds. Freezing level around 1600 metres with alpine high temperatures around 0 degrees.

FRIDAY: Scattered flurries (2-5cm possible). Light northerly winds. Freezing level 1300 metres with alpine high temperatures of 0 degrees.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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