Avalanche Forecast

North Columbia

Date issued

Feb 24, 2018 - 4:31 PM

Valid until

Feb 25, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Expect new snow and strong winds to form storm slabs and grow cornices. Sloughing, and cracking around skis and sleds are signs that the new snow is bonding poorly to the old surface. Avoid wind loaded areas with pillowy or chalky looking snow.

Regular season
Saturday - February 24, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - February 25, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - February 26, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and strong winds will create storm slabs in many areas in the alpine, as well as open areas at lower elevations. These slabs may be especially deep and touchy in wind-loaded areas on the leeward (down-wind) side of ridges and convex rolls.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Be careful with wind loaded slopes, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Summary

From Tuesday through Friday this week, there have been numerous reports of skier triggered slab avalanches up to size 2 on predominantly steep, southeast to southwest-facing features between 1600-2000 m, that failed on the mid-February crust. As well as explosive control results up to size 2, and a remotely triggered (from a distance) pocket of hard wind slab (size 1) near ridge top.

On Monday, natural wind slab avalanches to size 2.5 were reported on a southwest through northwest aspects between 1800m and 2400m.

Last weekend (Feb 17 & 18) there was a report of a wind slab release stepping down to deeper weak layers and triggering a size 3.5 persistent slab, on a south west aspect near 2300m.

Although deeper, persistent avalanche activity has become less frequent over the past week, light triggers in shallow rocky areas, as well as large triggers such as a cornice collapse or step down from a wind slab release, still have the potential to result in large destructive avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

About 10 cm new snow now covers the old snow interface which consists of sugary facets, as well as sun crusts on solar aspects and surface hoar on shaded, wind-protected slopes.

Below this interface lies another interface, with similar character and distribution that was buried mid-February and is now 40-60 cm below the surface. This layer has been reactive in recent snowpack tests and several avalanches have been reported to have failed on this layer in the past week.

Within the mid and lower snowpack are several persistent weak layers that are beginning to show signs of improving but still remain suspect.

Two surface hoar/ crust layers buried in January are now 150-200 cm below the snow surface. At least one of these layers can be found on all aspects and elevations.

Deeper in the snowpack (200 - 250 cm deep) is a facet/crust/surface hoar layer buried in December that is most prevalent at treeline elevations and below.

Near the base of the snowpack is a crust/facet combo layer buried in late November.

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Snow. Accumulation 10-15 cm. Ridge wind strong to extreme, southwest. Temperature -12. Freezing level valley bottom.

SUNDAY: Snow. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, west. Temperature -8. Freezing level valley bottom.

MONDAY: Cloudy, light flurries. Accumulation trace. Ridge wind light to moderate, southwest. Temperature -8. Freezing level 700 m.

TUESDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind light to moderate southwest. Temperature -6. Freezing level 900 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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