Avalanche Forecast
North Columbia
New snow and warming are influencing a complex snowpack: storm and wind slabs sit above three weak layers that are reactive at all elevations. Perform cautious route-finding without overhead exposure and avoid alpine terrain as the snowpack adjusts.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- If triggered, the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers, resulting in large avalanches.
- Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequence of a small avalanche could be serious.
- Be very cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain, wind slabs may be deep and touchy.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Three weak layers are lurking in our snowpack, which have produced very large avalanches. Use extreme caution in openings below treeline (such as cutblocks) and sheltered areas in the alpine and treeline, where weak layers may be preserved.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be very cautious below treeline in open areas where surface hoar may be preserved.
- Avoid open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Good day to make conservative terrain choices and watch for clues of instability.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, many small to large (size 1 to 3) storm slab avalanches were triggered naturally and by explosives at and above treeline on all aspects, 40 to 60 cm deep. Numerous large to very large (size 2 to 3.5) persistent slabs were also triggered naturally, by skiers, and explosives at all elevation bands and aspects.
These sorts of avalanches have been a consistent trend since last Wednesday, with small to large storm slabs observed at all elevations and large persistent slabs most often observed at treeline and alpine elevation bands. These avalanches can be triggered naturally and by skiers and snowmobilers. They have been releasing on all three persistent weak layers described in the Snowpack Discussion. Expect to see more avalanches with the changing weather and where the weak layers are preserved, such as in sheltered locations in the alpine and treeline elevations and in open cutblocks and gullies below treeline. Triggering such weak layers will likely produce large, destructive avalanches with high consequences.
Snowpack Summary
The current snowpack is complex, with three active weak layers that we are monitoring.
50-80 cm of storm snow sits on a crust and/or surface hoar layer (mid-January). The crust is reportedly widespread, except for possibly at high elevations on north aspects. The mid-January surface hoar is 5 to 20 mm in size and was reported at treeline elevations and possibly higher. The recent storm snow fell with strong south winds, producing wind slabs in lee features at treeline and alpine elevations and in open areas below treeline.
Deeper in the snowpack, the early-January persistent weak layer is 80 to 100 cm below the surface. It is composed of surface hoar on sheltered slopes as well as sun crust on steep solar aspects and is found at all elevation bands. Snowpack tests show sudden fracture characters with moderate loads and high propagation potential, and signs of instability such as whumpfs and cracking. Another weak layer buried mid-December consisting of a facet/surface hoar/crust combination is buried 100 to 150 cm deep. It is most problematic at and below tree line.
A rain crust buried in November is generally 150 to 200 cm deep and is likely dormant for the time being.
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 15-25 cm, light to moderate southerly winds, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level near 1100 m.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5-10 cm, light to moderate southerly winds, alpine temperature near -9 C, freezing level near 600 m.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy, light southwesterly winds, alpine temperature near -10 C, freezing level below valley bottom.
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Up to 80 cm of recent snow has formed a slab that sits on weak, feathery surface hoar and/or a crust. Expect the slab to be deep and touchy in lee features due to strong south winds. The slab will also be touchy below treeline with a warming trend.