Avalanche Forecast

North Columbia

Date issued

Dec 15, 2017 - 4:34 PM

Valid until

Dec 16, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jsmith

Isolated small wind slabs may have formed below ridgetops in areas that received 10cm or more of snow on Friday.

Regular season
Saturday - December 16, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - December 17, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - December 18, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

5-10cm of new snow on Friday combined with light to moderate winds from a variety of directions may have formed small wind slabs in isolated locations below ridgetops.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Dry

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Only a problem in steep terrain that received 10cm or more of new snow.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported within this region on Thursday. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

The 5-10cm of new snow on Friday fell on a wide variety of surfaces including large surface hoar (weak, feather-like crystals), hard crusts formed by sun or wind, and sugary facets. There is not yet significant new snow load to create big problems, however, it will be important to monitor how the new snow is bonding to the smorgasbord of surfaces out there. When we receive significant new snow and it settles into a cohesive slab, you can bet there will be avalanches. I would be most concerned about areas that have surface hoar sitting on top of a hard crust.

A major feature in the snowpack is a crust which was formed by rain in late November. It is down approximately 30-60cm at treeline elevations and snowpack tests suggest the snow is currently bonding well to it.

Below treeline, the snowpack depth decreases rapidly. Look out for early season hazards such as rocks, stumps, and open creeks.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light to moderate, westerly ridgetop winds / Freezing level valley bottom.

SUNDAY: 10-15cm snow / Moderate to strong westerly ridgetop winds / Freezing level valley bottom.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light to moderate westerly ridgetop winds / Freezing level valley bottom.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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