Avalanche Forecast

Avalanche Bulletin - Jasper National Park

Date issued

Nov 6, 2017 - 4:00 PM

Valid until

until further notice

Prepared by

rupert wedgwood

Early season conditions exist. Caution in gullies and wind loaded pockets at treeline and above.

Danger Ratings
Problems
Details

Early Season Conditions

Insufficient observations exist to reliably rate the avalanche danger. Expect shallow snow cover with thinly buried rocks and trees just beneath the surface. Avalanche danger often concentrates in gullies and other deposition areas, where windslabs may bond poorly to a weak underlying base. Deeper snow usually exists at higher elevations.

More Early Season Details

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?

Which Slopes?

Chances of Avalanches?

Expected Size?

This is a typical early winter avalanche problem that exists in isolated pockets where the snow has drifted into small wind slabs and the slope is steep enough to slide. Mainly a concern for ice climbers in steep gullies or walking above cliffs.

Travel and Terrain Advice

Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.
Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Avalanche Summary

No new. It is not uncommon at this time of year for climbers to trigger small avalanches from gully features. Even small rides over rocky terrain, or worse over cliffs, can have serious consequences.

Snowpack Summary

Field data is limited. Below 1700m there is no significant snow. At 2000m and above 30cm plus can be expected. Snow distribution will vary greatly with aspect, elevation, and exposure to the wind. Treeline and alpine gully features will be wind loaded as will some lee alpine slopes. Rocks and timber is marginally covered.

Weather Forecast

No significant snow is forecast for the next 72 hours. Temperatures will warm marginally as the arctic air mass is replaced with a more temperate sw air flow. Freezing levels will however remain near the valley bottom until the weekend

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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