Avalanche Forecast

Avalanche Bulletin - Glacier National Park

Date issued

Nov 3, 2017 - 2:52 PM

Valid until

until further notice

Prepared by

danyelle magnan

A skiff of new snow down to highway level barely covers early season hazards. Expect rugged conditions below treeline (full body armor might be a good idea). Above treeline, enough snow exists to avalanche. See Forecast Details tab.

Danger Ratings
Problems
Details

Early Season Conditions

Insufficient observations exist to reliably rate the avalanche danger. Expect shallow snow cover with thinly buried rocks and trees just beneath the surface. Avalanche danger often concentrates in gullies and other deposition areas, where windslabs may bond poorly to a weak underlying base. Deeper snow usually exists at higher elevations.

More Early Season Details

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?

Which Slopes?

Chances of Avalanches?

Expected Size?

25cm of new snow buried the 3cm thick "halloween crust", and was redistributed by NE winds. Expect thicker, and stiffer, pockets of snow to exist in areas reverse and cross-loaded by winds. These may become increasingly reactive as temperatures warm.

Travel and Terrain Advice

Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity continues to be observed from steep avalanche paths, such as those on the N face of Mt Cheops up the Connaught valley and off of Mt Macdonald, during periods of strong winds. Avalanches up to size 2 were observed stopping at the start of the avalanche fans.

Snowpack Summary

Early season snowpack conditions exist. Below 1500m, 30cm of snow covers the ground. Above 1500m snow-depths increase, with 90-120cm at and above treeline. ~25cm of snow in the past 72hrs has buried a 3cm thick crust and as slabs develop they may bond poorly. NE winds have loaded lee slopes, building deeper (and potentially more reactive) drifts.

Weather Forecast

Flurries have tapered off but the cold arctic air will stick around through the weekend. Saturday and Sunday expect a mix of sun and cloud, with temps ranging from -16 to -12'C. Fortunately the winds are expected to be light. Next week, freezing levels should gradually rise with the potential for flurries to start again on Wednesday.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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