Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Apr 23, 2018 - 4:28 PM

Valid until

Apr 24, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jsmith

Sunshine and rising temperatures will elevate the avalanche danger throughout the week. Be aware of changing conditions throughout the day and avoid overhead hazards.

This is our final daily forecast for the season which will expire on April 25th.

Regular season
Tuesday - April 24, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - April 25, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - April 26, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Warming and solar radiation are expected to trigger loose wet avalanches, especially in steep, sun-exposed terrain. Loose wet avalanches can be pushy and entrain mass quickly. Warming may also trigger destructive cornice failures.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating and sun exposure. Be aware of overhead hazard.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Professionals are traveling cautiously in shaded upper treeline and alpine terrain due to a weak layer buried 50 to 100 cm below the surface. Forecast warming and cornice failures may re-activate this layer in isolated terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
  • Be aware of the potential for wide propagation due to the presence of buried weak layers.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, which could trigger persistent slabs.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche reports have been limited due to very few information sources this time of year. If you have been out, please post your observations on the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

A weak layer consisting of surface hoar, facets, and/or a melt-freeze crust from late March is now buried about 50 to 100 cm below the surface. This layer is spotty in its distribution; however, it has recently produced large and destructive avalanches. It is mostly likely to be problematic on west, north, and east aspects between 1900 m and 2250 m. I'd continue to treat this layer very cautiously and would anticipate increase reactivity on this layer with the warming forecast for the next few days.

The mid and lower snowpack are well-settled and strong.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: Sunny. Light to moderate southwest wind. Alpine temperature +6. Freezing level 3000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Light northwest wind. Alpine temperature +9. Freezing level rapidly rising to 3500 m.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Light west wind. Alpine temperature +11. Freezing level 3500 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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