Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Apr 18, 2018 - 5:04 PM

Valid until

Apr 19, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jsmith

Sunshine and rising freezing levels will increase the likelihood of loose wet avalanches and cornice failures. Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Regular season
Wednesday - April 18, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - April 19, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - April 20, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

When the sun comes out it will quickly weaken the new snow and cause loose wet avalanches on steep solar slopes.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Watch for signs that the snow is heating up such as pin-wheeling or the surface snow becoming moist.
  • Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Lingering storm slabs may still be reactive to human triggers in wind affected terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumphing, cracking, or recent natural avalanches.
  • Use caution when transitioning into wind affected terrain.
  • Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.

Avalanche Problem 3: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Sunshine and warming temperatures will increase the likelihood of cornice fall.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating. Give them a wide berth both from above and below.
  • Falling cornices may trigger persistent weak layers deeper in the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Several naturally triggered size 2 storm slab avalanches were reported on north to east aspects, between 1800-2100 m near Fernie on Tuesday. Avalanche reports have been limited due to very few information sources this time of year. If you have been out, please post your observations on the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

Cornices are large and looming. Lingering storm slabs formed by 20-30 cm of recent snow may still be reactive to human triggers; especially in wind affected terrain. This storm snow overlies numerous crusts in the upper 100 cm of the snowpack.

The mid-pack is generally well settled and strong.

A layer of sugary facets around a crust can be found near the bottom of the snowpack which has been dormant for some time. Large triggers, such as a falling cornice, or a major warm-up to the snowpack could trigger this layer.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Sunny. Light southwest wind. Alpine temperature +6. Freezing level 2400 m.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Light to moderate southwest wind. Alpine temperature +6. Freezing level 2500 m.

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Strong southwest wind. Alpine temperature +1. Freezing level 1800 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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