Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Apr 18, 2018 - 4:19 PM

Valid until

Apr 19, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Warming and sun on Thursday will weaken the recent snow and increase the likelihood of triggering avalanches. Be extra cautious on south-facing slopes. Avoid exposing yourself to hazard from large slopes or cornices overhead while its sunny or warm.

Regular season
Wednesday - April 18, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - April 19, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - April 20, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The sun and warming temperatures on Thursday will rapidly weaken the snow surface. Expect loose wet avalanches, particularly on steep southerly terrain and near rocks. Watch your overhead exposure, as wet slides can quickly gain mass and grow large.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.
  • Avoid steep slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent snowfall has formed storm slabs, which sit on a melt-freeze crust in most areas. Sun and warming could produce moist slabs failing on the crust. Also be cautious on or below corniced ridges. Cornices can become weak with sun and warming.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, which could trigger slabs on slopes below.

Avalanche Summary

We have received very little information on avalanche activity for this region. From what we have heard, skiers could easily trigger small loose wet avalanches on Monday. Natural loose wet avalanches were also observed in treeline and alpine terrain, particularly on southerly aspects.

Over the weekend, large slab avalanches were also observed on the North Shore mountains that may have released during the storm on Friday. Read MIN report here

Further north near Squamish reports indicated sun-induced natural activity on Sunday in alpine terrain.

We would very much appreciate it if you spend a moment to submit any observations you have to the Mountain Information Network here, even if it is just a photo. Thanks!

Snowpack Summary

Above about 1200 m, 50 to 60 cm of moist snow sits on a predominant crust that formed at the beginning of April. The snow below this is well-settled and strong.

Below 1200 m, a spring snowpack exists.

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Clear. Ridge wind light, south. Temperature at treeline near +2. Freezing level 1600 m.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Ridge wind light, southwest. Temperature at treeline near +3. Freezing level 1600 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain changing to snow beginning in the evening. Precipitation 15-30 mm. Ridge wind light, south. Temperature at treeline near 0. Freezing level 1500 m, lowering to 1000 m.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, snow ending. Accumulation 10-20 cm. Ridge wind moderate, southwest. Temperature at treeline near -1. Freezing level 1200 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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