Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Apr 17, 2018 - 3:56 PM

Valid until

Apr 18, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

A warming and sunny trend is forecasted. This will weaken the recent snow and increase the likelihood of triggering avalanches. Be cautious on south slopes and avoid overhead exposure when it is sunny or warm.

Regular season
Tuesday - April 17, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - April 18, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - April 19, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The sun and warming temperatures will rapidly weaken the snow surface. Expect loose wet avalanches, particularly on steep southerly terrain and near rocks. Watch your overhead exposure, as they can grow and become large and destructive.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent snowfall has formed storm slabs, which overlies a melt-freeze crust in most areas. The snow could slide on the crust and produce large avalanches.  Be cautious on or below corniced ridges, as cornice falls could trigger slab avalanches.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, which could trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • Observe for the bond of new snow with the old surface before committing into avalanche terrain.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.

Avalanche Summary

We have received very little information on avalanche activity for this region. From what we have heard, skiers could easily trigger small loose wet avalanches on Monday. Natural loose wet avalanches were also observed in treeline and alpine terrain, particularly on southerly aspects. Large slab avalanches were also observed, which may have released during the storm on Friday.

We would very much appreciate it if you spend a moment to submit any observations you have to the Mountain Information Network here, even if it is just a photo. Thanks!

Snowpack Summary

Above about 1200 m, 30 to 40 cm of snow on Monday and Tuesday fell on a melt-freeze crust formed by Sunday's sunshine and warm air temperatures. The snow below this is well-settled and strong.

Below 1200 m, a spring snowpack exists.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with afternoon clearing, light southeast winds, treeline temperature 0 C, freezing level 1000 m rising to 1500 m.

THURSDAY: Sunny with some afternoon cloud, light southwest winds, treeline temperature 0 C, freezing level 1400 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with afternoon precipitation, light to moderate southwest winds, treeline temperature -1 C, freezing level 1300 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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