Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Apr 15, 2018 - 3:23 PM

Valid until

Apr 16, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Forecasted snow Sunday night into Monday will build new storm slabs at all elevation bands. Treat the hazard as High if you find more than 30 cm of snow accumulation.

Regular season
Sunday - April 15, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - April 16, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - April 17, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

20 to 30 cm of snow is forecasted. This will form new slabs that may not bond well to varying underlying surfaces. Be cautious entering into immediate lee terrain features, as the snow will likely fall with southeast winds.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, which could trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • Observe for the bond of new snow with the old surface before committing into avalanche terrain.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.

Avalanche Summary

We have received very little information on avalanche activity for this region.  From the little we have heard, skiers could easily trigger small loose wet avalanches on Saturday.  Forecasted snow should mean that the likelihood of triggering avalanches is on the rise.

We would very much appreciate it if you spend a moment to submit any observations you have to the Mountain Information Network here, even if it is just a photo. Thanks!

Snowpack Summary

Snowfall forecasted Sunday night into Monday will form new storm slabs.  The new snow will fall on a sun crust on southerly aspects formed by Sunday’s sunshine.   Elsewhere, the snow will overlie storm slabs formed on Friday or wind slabs formed from strong south winds.  A thick melt-freeze crust exists below this, and is about 40 to 60 cm deep.

Below about 1000 m, a spring snowpack exists.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 30 cm, light to moderate southeast winds, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 1000 m.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, light west winds, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 1100 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, light southwest winds, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 1100 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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